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Brian Mitchell Immigration has never rated so high as a national issue, but you'd never know it from this year's mid-term election. The issue is a hot topic in few races, and voters seem ready to hand power to the party behind more immigration, even as polls show most Americans want less. Two-thirds (68%) of respondents to a September poll said current legal and illegal immigration is too high; 8% said it's too low. Almost half (44%) rate immigration among the top three issues. Just 8% said it's not a big issue. "Immigration has never had this kind of primacy in previous elections," said Kellyanne Conway, president of Polling Co., which did the survey. But the war in Iraq topped the list of concerns for the largest share of voters (26%), followed by jobs and the economy (17%). Those concerns and recent Republican scandals have pushed immigration into the background. Republican ambivalence has helped keep it there. Torn between pro-immigration donors and anti-immigration voters, most GOP candidates have shied away from the issue. Congress itself split between the House's enforcement-first plan for taking control of the border and the Senate's comprehensive plan for boosting legal immigration and legalizing illegals already here. "Neither approach standing alone is going to satisfy a majority in the country," said Republican pollster Whit Ayers. Ayers' own poll in June had 40% of voters (and 35% of Republicans) favoring a comprehensive approach, including a guest-worker program and a "path to citizenship" for illegals. Just 22% of voters favored clamping down on the border and on employment of illegals. Other pollsters said surveys showing broad support for the Senate plan were misleading. "The real weight of all the data is that the House of Representatives is where the American people are," said pollster Michael McKenna. The proof, he said, is that President Bush capitulated to the House. "He's been dragged there kicking and screaming, but he has been dragged there," McKenna said. "If the polls showed what some pollsters say they showed, the president wouldn't have yielded, but he did." Conway's September poll gave respondents different choices and produced very different results. One in five (20%) were ready to round up all illegals for immediate deportation. One in three (31%) said illegals should be allowed to stay and become citizens. Almost half (44%) favored enforcing current immigration laws that would encourage illegals to go home on their own. Respondents overwhelmingly rejected Bush's argument that immigrants take jobs that Americans won't. Three-quarters (73%) said employers just have to pay more. Republicans are more anti-immigration than Democrats, but the GOP's split between its leadership and grass roots has kept the party from taking advantage. In many races, challengers have neutralized the issue by aping incumbents' positions. In races where candidates have differed, the issue hasn't paid off as much as hoped. Sen. Rick Santorum (news, bio, voting record), R-Pa., has slammed Democratic rival Bob Casey Jr. for months on Casey's endorsement of the Senate plan. But polls show Casey still ahead by 5 to 12 percentage points. In New Jersey, GOP challenger Tom Kean Jr. supports the border fence, which Sen. Robert Menendez opposes. But the incumbent has a two-to-one lead in cash on hand and is up by 4 to 9 points in recent polls. A tough stand on immigration hasn't hurt many candidates. "If the Republicans lose, it won't be because of the House plan on immigration, which appears to have very strong support," said Steve Camarota, director of research for the Center for Immigration Studies, which favors stiff immigration controls. CIS commissioned the survey. "They're going to lose because of the war in Iraq, terrorism, the economy, Foley," he said. Copyright 2006 Investor's Business Daily, Inc. |
